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Whether you are a recreational gambler or a seasoned pro, this site is a must read on a daily basis throughout the baseball season. Whether you are looking for the latest baseball odds or up to date trends and statistics, it is important to stop by daily in order to create an edge over the house.

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Brewers’ strength befits crazy 15-0 Cubs’ trend!
2009-07-02

The word “disappointing” has been thrown about regularly regarding the Cubs’ 2009 season thus far as they begin a key four-game series at home against the Brewers on Thursday night. Still, a big holiday weekend against division-leading Milwaukee and Chicago will be right back in the thick of things. According to a 15-0 StatFox Matchup Power Trend, that may be just what’s in store.

The ironic thing about this all-important trend is that it negates the Brewers best strength to this point, their bullpen. Milwaukee currently owns the best WHIP in baseball at 1.247. This sets Chicago up for a matchup that has been very favorable of late. Take a look at the trend, a rare 5* angle from FoxSheets:

CHICAGO CUBS are 15-0 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 6.5, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 5*)

Of course, with the Brewers teetering right below that key 1.250 WHIP benchmark, this trend might only be in place for Thursday if Chicago smacks around Milwaukee’s relief staff in the series opener.

Milwaukee comes off a disheartening 1-0 setback to the Mets on Wednesday. In fact, after going more than two months without being shut out, the Brewers have been blanked twice in the last four days.

Perhaps now they can sympathize with the Chicago Cubs.

The Cubs hope a return to Wrigley Field will help them snap out of a lengthy offensive funk, especially with the first-place Brewers in town for the first time this year to open a four-game set Thursday night.

Milwaukee had a chance to sweep each of its last two series, but lost 7-0 to San Francisco on Sunday and 1-0 to the New York Mets on Wednesday afternoon.

After scoring a combined 16 runs in their first two games against the Mets, the Brewers (42-36) wasted a seven-inning, 12-strikeout effort from Yovani Gallardo in the finale. They went 0 for 7 with men in scoring position.

"We're in first place. That's all that really matters," outfielder Ryan Braun told the Brewers' official Web site. "We're playing well right now, and I think a lot of guys are starting to put together some quality at-bats. We're in pretty good shape."

The Cubs can't make the same claim. They've scored 129 runs since May 19, fewest in the majors over that span, and suffered six shutout losses to tie Atlanta for the most in that stretch. Chicago went 16-23 in those 39 games.

Last year, the Cubs (37-38) led the NL with 855 runs.

Despite its problems at the plate, Chicago is 3 1/2 games behind Milwaukee in the tightly bunched NL Central. Thanks to some strong pitching, the Cubs took two of three from Pittsburgh this week even though they managed seven runs in the series.

Chicago's offensive woes are a major reason why Ryan Dempster went 0-2 in his five June starts. He had a 3.23 ERA in the month, but received 2.35 runs of support per nine innings as the Cubs lost all five games.

Dempster entered the year with an 8-2 record and 2.45 ERA in 35 appearances against Milwaukee, but he is 1-1 with a 5.84 ERA in two starts versus the Brewers in 2009.

The Cubs and Brewers split their first six meetings of the season, all at Miller Park. Milwaukee was 5-4 at Wrigley last year, an impressive mark considering Chicago went 55-26 at home.

Seth McClung (3-1, 3.55) will be making his first career start against the Cubs, although he has pitched 5 1-3 innings of relief versus Chicago this year. He held the Cubs to a .177 average while posting a 2.55 ERA in 10 career relief appearances despite walking 10 in 17 2-3 innings.

Game time is 7:05 PM local time in Chicago.

MLB: Big-time run line system backs Giants in St. Louis
2009-07-01

Most baseball bettors use the K.I.S.S method when it comes to filling out their wagering tickets each day. They Keep It Simple by just playing sides and the occasional total. More savvy players mix it up though, throwing in some 5 inning bets or run line wagers when it makes sense. Perhaps this is because most bettors don’t have access to powerful information, like systems, to take advantage of those latter opportunities. Well, for Tuesday, a big-time Super Situation from FoxSheets backs San Francisco as a +1-1/2 run dog in St. Louis. Take a look.

The Giants shut out the Cardinals on Monday night behind Tim Lincecum. The final tally was a decisive 10-0 count, with San Francisco beating St. Louis 12-2 in the hit column as well. Now, because of that results, with the ageless Randy Johnson squaring off against Chris Carpenter, the Giants actually make for a strong underdog play on the run line at about +1-1/2 -125. Here is why, according to FoxSheets:

Play Against - Home favorites against a 1.5 run line (Money Line =-190 to +175) (ST LOUIS) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games (78-21 since 1997.) (78.8%, +49.9 units. Rating=4*)

In essence, the system is indicating that too much of this line is reliant on another dominant performance by Carpenter. That is apparently a dangerous presumption to make after San Francisco broke out last night. What’s most interesting about that game is that the Giants are among baseball's least productive offensive clubs, a fact the Cardinals are having a hard time believing after they were hit hard in the series opener.

Of course, repeating the outbreak at the plate won't be nearly as easy. The Cardinals will have ace Carpenter on the mound. He is 5-2 with a stellar 1.78 ERA and 0.700 WHIP. He is also 3-0 against San Francisco in his career with an ERA of 3.00, including a win on May 30th on the road when he allowed just two runs in six innings.

San Francisco (41-34) came into St. Louis this week with the NL wild card lead, but a potent lineup hasn't been what's made it one of baseball's most surprising teams. Instead, it's been the major league-best 3.61 staff ERA that's propelled the Giants despite a less-than-stellar offense that scores just 4.1 runs per game.

They averaged 6.5 runs in their last two contests in Milwaukee over the weekend, though, and that offensive spark carried over on Monday. Edgar Renteria and Travis Ishikawa each drove in three runs to support reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum's two-hitter.

Johnson (7-5, 4.68), the 45-year-old left-hander, has done a particularly impressive job lately. He's 4-1 with a 2.57 ERA in his last seven starts, and gave up one run and six hits over seven innings Wednesday in a 6-3 win at Oakland.

Johnson's two starts against St. Louis last season didn't go well. He went 0-1 with a 9.31 ERA, yielding five homers in 9 2-3 innings.

In other key Run Line Betting information available from FoxSheets on this game:

* SAN FRANCISCO is 12-2 against the run line (+10.1 Units) in road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.4, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 1*)

However, there is one strong bit of info that would seem to conflict our top system a bit, focusing on the aspect of revenge. It is a team trend and reads as follows:

* ST LOUIS is 57-28 against the run line (+33.2 Units) revenging a shutout loss to opponent since 1997. The average score was ST LOUIS 5.1, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*)

What wins out, system or trend? Find out tonight when the Cardinals host the Giants from baseball-friendly Busch Stadium at 8:15 PM ET.

MLB: Lowe vs Pettitte – Just like the old days
2009-06-26

Tonight’s pitching matchup in Atlanta pits the Yankees’ Andy Pettitte vs. the Braves’ Derek Lowe. To the baseball historian, that should conjure up memories of past Yankees-Red Sox duals gone by. If nothing else, it’s simply fun to talk about. Well, things have and always will change, as tonight’s game is an Interleague affair, with little or no added flair besides the pitchers. Atlanta started as the home dog, but is now the favorite. Follow the LIVE ODDS page for the latest price on this game.

It’s closing in on five years since the last time the New York Yankees last faced Derek Lowe and it’s one they would just as soon forget. Lowe is only 8-10 with a 6.07 ERA in 39 career appearances (15 starts) against the Yankees; however the last appearance left a distinct mark. Pitching on two days rest, Lowe gave the Boston Red Sox six solid innings of one-hit baseball, which enabled them to overcome 3-0 deficit in the deciding game of the 2004 ALCS and go on to win 10-3. Riding that momentum, Boston went on to end 86-year drought and win the World Series.

Lowe (7-5, 4.09 ERA) left that off-season as a free agent and hasn’t run into the Yankees since until tonight. After a 5-1 start with his new team, Lowe has been hit harder of late, with 1-2 record and 7.47 ERA in his last three starts. He hasn’t been able to locate his sinker as well and hitters have fattened up batting averages. The Braves are 1-4 in his last five starts.

Andy Pettitte (7-3, 4.26, 1.500) has pitched better than anticipated for the Yankees who are 10-4 in his starts in 2009. Pettitte has been a big part of New York’s past glory and like every pitcher on the Yankees staff, is trying to adapt to new Yankee Stadium which has been a hitter’s haven. Pettitte has been particularly impressive on the road with 4-1 record and among the better hurlers in baseball with 2.35 ERA in the traveling uniforms.

New York (39-32, -8.7 units) ended their three game losing streak last evening, pounding out 10 hits in 8-4 triumph over Atlanta. The Yankees will be trying to win the rubber game of the series and are 61-30 in Game 3’s. If they would happen to lose this evening, that would mean they would have to sweep the Mets this weekend to finish .500 in interleague play.

Atlanta (34-37, -9.7 units) has been stuck in neutral, going nowhere fast. Since sweeping Toronto in the latter stages of May, the Braves are 0-6-3 in series action, with Monday’s makeup game against the Cubs not counting. About the only real positive is Atlanta is 5-1 against the American League at Turner Field this year.

New York opened as favorite, but sports bettors have flipped the two teams at Sportsbook.com and Atlanta is now a -110 money line favorite with a total of Un8.5. The Braves are 6-1 as -110 to -150 favorites and are 17-6 UNDER on Thursday’s. The Yankees are miserable 1-6 after scoring five or more runs in previous game and are 16-3 UNDER on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last two seasons with Pettitte as the starter.

Game time is 7:10 Eastern and can be seen on YES or Peachtree networks, with Atlanta 4-12 (-11.4 Units) after a loss by four runs or more this season.

StatFox Power Line – Yankees -104

MLB: Orioles flying high and are slight underdogs
2009-06-24

It was looking like another glum baseball season in Baltimore, especially after the Orioles started 2-8 in June, but quicker than you can say John minus Kate ain’t eight, the O’s have won five in a row and seven of eight. Baltimore (32-37, -3 units) has feasted on the National League with 9-3 record and has six games this week trying to edge even closer to .500, starting in Florida. On Tuesday, Baltimore is a slight +100 dog, and with Florida’s past domination in the series, expect most bettors to be backing the hosts.

The Orioles have everyday lineup has meshed together, scoring 6.1 runs per game during this eight-game period, compared to 4.6 in all games played. Even the Baltimore starting pitchers have been effective. This no-name group has Jeremy Guthrie as the only recognizable name to even a fairly ardent baseball fan.

“I feel like we’ve improved,” Orioles manager Dave Trembley told the team’s official Web site. “There are a lot of things going on. We’re getting contributions from everybody, our bench has contributed, our situational hitting has improved. We’re getting key hits when it counts. We’re playing with confidence and we’re having a lot of fun. That’s what happens when everybody plays as a team.”

That was especially evident in sweep of the defending World Series champs Philadelphia at the there park. The Orioles will face an even greater challenge playing at Landshark Stadium for three games.
Baltimore has just five wins in 18 tries against Florida in interleague action, with only one win in Miami in nine ballgames. In spite of winning three in Philly, the Birds are still feckless 11-20 on the road and 16-35 as visitors dating back to last season.

They will try to get off to good start with Koji Uehara (2-4, 4.30 ERA, 1.253 WHIP), who is a rookie in name only at 34 years old. The Japanese veteran Uehara has not won since April 13, but hasn’t pitched poorly in last nine starts, with more than respectable 3.73 ERA in that span. He’s been too often caught up in the Orioles lack of run production, as Uehara has seen 2.3 runs per start since his last victory.
Baltimore will face left-hander Andrew Miller (2-3, 4.56, 1.559) of the Marlins, who continues flounder. Granted, most lefties take longer to develop, but the 6’6 Miller is not only tall, but has long arms, which has made his ability to have a repeatable delivery difficult. Though his fastball is lively and he has 43 punchouts in 51 1/3 innings, Miller also handed out 27 free passes. The Orioles have beaten the last five lefty starters they have encountered.

Florida (35-36, +0.7 units) has been coming around, with 6-3 record in last nine games, all versus the American League. The offense tends to be like the nearby Atlantic Ocean tide, it rises and drifts away. The best news is the Marlins are 14-6 (+11.9 Units) after five straight games where they had less than 10 hits.

Sportsbook.com has placed Florida in the favorite’s role at -110 on the money line with a total 9. The Fish are 8-3 at home against teams that have less than .400 road record and they are 12-3 OVER when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last three seasons and Miller is the starter. Baltimore is 2-8 against clubs with losing record and is 23-10 OVER against left-handed starters on the road since last season.

Baltimore last won six straight on April 2-8, 2008 and will try to match that streak starting at 7:10 Eastern on MLB.TV.
StatFox Power Line – Baltimore -117