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MLB: Yankees Up Against Stout System and Pitcher
2008-08-21

In a series dominated by pitching, Toronto will throw their ace Roy Halladay, trying to win a series over New York and creep to within a game of the Yankees who continue to lose ground in wild card chase. The Blue Jays A.J. Burnett struck out 13 batters in eight innings in Toronto’s 2-1 victory Tuesday and Andy Pettitte responded with seven efficient innings in the Yankees’ 5-1 win in the middle game of the series last night.

Halladay (14-9, 2.64, 1.042 WHIP) has haunted the Yankees in the new millennium, with 9-2 record and 2.04 ERA in his last 15 starts against them. In his last seven home starts versus New York, he’s 5-0 with a 2.08 ERA. Included, is his last start against the Bronx Bombers when he whirled a complete game two-hit shutout on July 11. “He was dominating,” Alex Rodriguez said. “We weren’t even close.” The Jays right-hander is 6-3 with a 1.81 ERA and three complete games in his last nine starts.

Toronto will come into this contest with 23-7 against the money line in home games after a loss by four runs or more over the last three seasons and face Sidney Ponson (7-3, 4.19, 1.532). Ponson has resurrected his career of sorts, fashioning a winning record with Texas and New York, for a combined +5 units in his 18 starts in 2008. Manager Joe Girardi’s club has won only two of last eight road games and is 9-19 as visitors vs. a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start.

A combination of factors work together to provide a Super System that reads like this:

PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (NY YANKEES) - with a starting pitcher (Ponson in this case) whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 on the season-AL, in August games.

The Ponson story is nice to see, as a player works to overcome personal demons, yet the fact remains he has allowed 131 hits in 109 2/3 innings and doesn’t strike out enough hitters to get him out of jams. (46 total) In the words of the old Saturday Night Live bit, when Billy Crystal was on the show, “This system is MARVELOUS”. Since 2004, this Super System is 43-8, 84.3 percent.

Sportsbook.com has made Toronto a -175 money line favorite, with the total having fallen to 8.5. The average winning margin of these types of games is +2.3 runs and the Blue Jays are 28-12 (+17.0 Units) against the money line after two straight games where they stranded five or less runners on base.

This is a big ballgame for the Blue Jays who trail Boston by seven games in the loss column, for the wild card position. Toronto still has 10 contests remaining with the Red Sox, thus every game they can win before playing them, keeps them at the same pace and in position to gain on Boston.

First pitch is set for 7:07 Eastern for local broadcasts and on MLB.TV.

MLB: Angels Having a Devil of a Time in Tampa
2008-08-20

For the last several months, the Los Angeles Angels have either been the best team in the American League or the best team in baseball. As of last evening, they have lost both positions and if they expect to reclaim top spot, the Angels will have to do something they have been unable to do all season, win at Tampa Bay.

Having lost the first two games of the series already at Tropicana Field, the Angels are 0-5 at the Rays home park and have lost just their eighth series of the year. Having dropped two of three in Cleveland in previous series, this is the first time since early June L.A. has lost back-to-back series and they have only been swept one other time all season, in Tampa Bay, May 9-11.

Though the Angels are in no danger of giving away their AL West lead, they would certainly like to post at least one victory in Tampa, as the way things are setting up, they might have to make this trip again in October when the pressure will really to be turned up.

After the Rays lost outfielder Carl Crawford and rookie of the year candidate Evan Longoria, the assumption was manager Joe Maddon’s club would finally come back to reality. Instead, Tampa Bay has swum away from all competitors, having won 16 of last 20 games and is 22-9 since the All-Star break, the best in the big leagues. The Halos may have the best road record in baseball at 39-25 (+15.4 units), however they have been no match for the Rays who have the highest marks for home teams at 47-17 (+25.1) and are the best wager in the game at +24.1 units.

Jered Weaver (10-9, 4.47, 1.312 WHIP) is given the assignment of derailing the Rays, as Los Angeles will be underdog for first time in the series. Sportsbook.com has the Angels as +110 money line dogs with total at 8.5. Possibly this role will help the Halos, who are 19-10 (+13.7 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher and 25-10 (+17.5 Units) on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. Weaver is 2-0 lifetime versus Tampa Bay with sterling 1.93 ERA.

These Rays have given L.A. a devil of a time and are more like sharks than former team nickname. Tampa Bay has destroyed clubs with solid pitching to the tune of 30-12, in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs a game. For a team that has never had prosperity and has never been a consistent favorite, Tampa Bay has taken to this role like a duck to water, with 27-9 record as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season. Matt Garza (10-7, 3.63, 1.211) will try to extend the Angels misery and is 6-2 at the Trop in 2008.

The total has real possibilities tonight, with Garza 13-3 UNDER at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last three seasons (Team's Record) and Weaver and L.A. 20-7 UNDER after a loss. Something will have to given on the ESPN2 contest which starts at 7:10 Eastern, as the Tampa Bay is 10-1 in home games after two straight wins by two runs or less this season and Los Angeles is 31-14 after two or more consecutive losses over the last two campaigns.

StatFox Power Line – Tampa Bay -126

MLB: Obvious & Powerful System backs Brewers, Sabathia
2008-08-13

The Milwaukee Brewers will be in search of their eighth consecutive win Wednesday when they visit the San Diego Padres for Game 2 of their 3-game set. Milwaukee (-200) sends its new ace, C.C. Sabathia, to the hill and is backed by a powerful StatFox Super Situation that boasts a 60-7 won-lost mark. Here’s more on the potent system plus a preview of tonight’s contest.

The Brewers are on a mission to reach the postseason for the first time since 1982 and have shown it over the last seven contests as they have outscored their opponents, 42-11. The road has also become an advantage of late, as Tuesday's 5-2 victory gave Milwaukee its 12th win in the last 15 games away from Miller Park. This is in stark contrast to recent seasons’ performances where the Brewers struggled horribly away from home.

As a result of their recent surge, the Brewers have been able to pull within 3-games of the Cubs for the N.L. Central Division lead. Perhaps more importantly, they have gained a 4-game separation from St. Louis for the wildcard lead.

C.C. Sabathia (12-8, 3.11 ERA) will get the call for the Brewers, looking to post a second consecutive shutout. The hefty lefthander is 6-0 with a 1.58 ERA in seven starts since moving over to the National League on July 7. Sabathia is already tied for the NL lead in complete games with four - matching teammate Ben Sheets.

The combination of the hefty chalk line on Milwaukee, San Diego’s recent hitting woes, and Sabathia’s dominance, lead to a StatFox system that seems obvious on the surface, but has been even more potent than the average bettor might realize. Here is it:

* Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (SAN DIEGO) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. (60-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (89.6%, +44.5 units. Rating = 4*)

San Diego’s offensive struggles are well documented, and the main reason the club has fallen to 46-73 on the season. Discounting the past weekend series at stat-padding Colorado, the Padres have not exceeded the 5-run mark in any of their last 10 games. For the season at Petco Park, San Diego is batting just .234 while scoring just 3.5 runs per game. As a result, they are just 25-35 for a bankroll-crushing -17.2 units as hosts.

On the mound, the Padres will counter Sabathia with rookie Josh Banks (3-4, 3.77). The 26-year-old righthander has not factored in the decision in either of his last two outings despite allowing four earned runs in 12 combined frames.

Historically, Sabathia has throttled poor clubs, going 87-35 for +34.5 units throughout his career against teams outscored by 0.5 run or more per game. There are a couple of other significant trends indicating to fade San Diego as well:

* SAN DIEGO is 14-25 (-13.5 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.8, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)

* SAN DIEGO is 5-17 (-11.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.2, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)

Game time for this contest is 10:05 PM ET. StatFox Edge: Brewers -200.

MLB: Top MLB Weekend Power Trends
2008-08-08

Two key series’ in each league will highlight the MLB schedule for the weekend as continue to push deeper into the pennant races. In the National League, division rivals will go head-to-head in both Chicago and New York, as the Cubs welcome St. Louis to town, and the Mets host a 3-game series against the Marlins. In the American League, it’s the battle of the Sox, Red and White, from the south side of the Chicago, along with a big series on the West Coast with the Angels welcoming the Yankees to L.A. It’s a big weekend of baseball, so here’s a closer look at all four of those key series’, along with a Top StatFox Power Trend for each of the 15 weekend matchups on the diamond.

On the north side of the Windy City, the N.L. Central Division leading Cubs will host rival St. Louis. The Cardinals sit 6-games back in the division race and 1-game out of the top wildcard spot in the National League. They are starting a critical 10-game road swing this weekend that also includes stops in Florida and Cincinnati. Fortunately for St. Louis, the road has been kind this year, as the Cards boast a healthy 31-25 record away, having scored 5.3 runs per game while batting .282. Still, the Cubs 43-16 record at Wrigley could trump any of those numbers.

At Shea, the Mets and Marlins will go at it for three key games over the weekend. With both teams back within 2-games of division leading Philadelphia, the series takes on significance. Neither team can afford to lose ground to the Phillies, who host the lowly Pirates this weekend. New York has taken five of the nine meetings between these teams this year and will be looking to improve its 34-21 record at home. The Mets are 11-2 in their last 13 games as hosts and haven’t lost a series in New York since June. Meanwhile, the next 10 games for the Marlins could make or break the ’08 season, as all 10 come against teams in the pennant race.

Switching focus to the junior circuit, on the south side of Chicago, the Red Sox will spend the weekend at U.S. Cellular Field taking on the leaders of the Central Division. Boston remains in striking distance of Tampa Bay in the East, but this figures to be a key 4-game series for the Red Sox, since they’ve struggled on the road against good teams this year. The White Sox meanwhile, are just a half-game up in the Central over Minnesota and have not fared well against Boston lately, losing six of the last seven at home.

Finally, in Los Angeles, the Yankees and Angels hook up for the second straight weekend, only this time on the other side of the country. In New York last weekend, the teams split four games. The Yankees face a big six-game road trip which will conclude in Minnesota in the early part of next week. At 5-1/2 games down to the Rays, anything shy of a 3-3 trip will be damaging to their playoff hopes. For the Angels, sitting comfortably 12 games ahead in the West, it’s almost time to start counting magic numbers.

Now, here’s a Top StatFox Power Trend for each of the 15 series’ on tap for the weekend.

ST LOUIS at CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS are 14-4 (+9.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better this season.
The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 6.2, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)

PITTSBURGH at PHILADELPHIA
PITTSBURGH is 12-45 (-26.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.9, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 2*)

HOUSTON at CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 19-33 (-18.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.1, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 2*)

FLORIDA at NY METS
FLORIDA is 19-12 (+14.2 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was FLORIDA 4.2, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 2*)

WASHINGTON at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 20-3 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 6.1, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 2*)

SAN DIEGO at COLORADO
SAN DIEGO is 4-17 (-16.7 Units) against the money line vs. a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 2.4, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 4*)

ATLANTA at ARIZONA
ATLANTA is 29-13 UNDER (+13.6 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 4.3, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 2*)

LA DODGERS at SAN FRANCISCO
LA DODGERS are 23-12 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA DODGERS 5.2, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)

TEXAS at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 73-33 (+31.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 5.7 or more runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was BALTIMORE 5.2, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 1*)

OAKLAND at DETROIT
DETROIT is 17-25 (-13.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 5.1, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)

CLEVELAND at TORONTO
TORONTO is 13-1 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 6.0, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 1*)

MINNESOTA at KANSAS CITY
MINNESOTA is 21-7 (+17.3 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.6, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 4*)

BOSTON at CHI WHITE SOX
BOSTON is 11-24 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was BOSTON 4.1, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*)

NY YANKEES at LA ANGELS
NY YANKEES are 11-0 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was NY YANKEES 6.5, OPPONENT 1.7 - (Rating = 4*)

TAMPA BAY at SEATTLE
TAMPA BAY is 5-17 (-12.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.4, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)